Where from here?
Some thoughts on today's assassination attempt on Donald Trump.
An enormous amount of ink is going to be used to discuss today’s assassination attempt on Donald Trump. This is understandable as this is the first significant assassination attempt on a (former) President since Ronald Reagan in 1981. Importantly, and sadly, there have been other acts of violence against American political candidates since then but this is certainly now the most prominent.
This act of violence is shocking yet it is also not unexpected in the currently over-heated American political environment. Such violence is never justified but with the political rhetoric ever-increasing, it seemed to me only a matter of time that someone would act in this way - be it against Trump or Biden, or someone else. Sadly, as I write one bystander is dead and at least two others wounded.
There are of course many questions to be answered but one of the first political questions is whether this changes the nature of the presidential election. Some are now suggesting that this makes for an almost certain win for Trump. I am not so certain.
It is clear that the action against Trump will elicit a strong response from Americans. We have seen before how assassination attempts garner sympathy and support for the person who is targeted. How Trump reacted will also attract attention. He ultimately stood strong and defiantly. The photo below sums it up perfectly - a former president wounded, bleeding, yet fist raised defiantly and an American flag proudly flying. This has already been contrasted with the current President who is appearing the complete opposite - weak, confused, bumbling.
Many pundits are already suggesting that Trump will win hands down based off this sympathy and his defiance, and in contrast to Biden. However, I do think we have to step back from some of the initial emotions and query just how many American voters will switch their votes because of today's actions. Undoubtedly, all or most Republicans will continue voting for Trump. But do we believe that many – or any - voting Democrat will switch their vote due to this? I think the short answer is no. Politics in the United States is already highly polarised and just like with the recent presidential debate, those who have already decided their vote and not prepared to switch no matter how bad things get. The question then turns to swing voters and this is where things may get interesting. I think a number of swing voters will turn towards Trump due to the contrast between Biden and Trump highlighted via this assassination attempt. Will it be enough? It could well be, as a swing of one or two percent will be significant in the key swing states. We will find out on election day!
Unknown at this stage is how this will affect calls for President Biden to step aside. Firstly, I should note the gracious and appropriate response given by Biden. Everything from calling Trump on the phone, to calling for calm and decrying violence is excellent. However, even before today's violent events, questions were being raised about Biden’s ability to confront Trump. This was of course focused on mental acuity and physical stamina. The assassination attempt and how it was handled now provides an even greater contrast. Put simply, this may well increase calls from within the Democratic party to replace Biden.
As for why this happened - beyond the ultimate responsibility of the shooter - some will blame Trump and some will blame Biden. In many ways, both men and their respective political parties hold some responsibility. For the Democrats and allies, trying to pin some of this on Trump himself will come across - as they like to call it - victim blaming; something they decry loudly in other situations. Others will point to speeches given by Biden and the Democrats which have demonised Trump to such a point that an act of violence will have been seen as the necessary response. What is clear to me is that the rhetoric from both sides was such that violence was almost inevitable. If any good is to come from today it is that it acts as a pressure valve, with both Democrats and Republicans focusing on policy and what is good for the American people rather than attacking each other.
A few other final points and observations in these early hours since the attack. Have you noticed the lack of riots, burnings, looting, and general violence in response to this assassination attempt? This is of course a good thing. But if you read the legacy media and progressive commentariat, those supporting Trump are meant to be such people and yet we have not (yet?) seen any retribution. Would it have been the same had this been an attempt on President Biden or a Democrat? I will leave you to answer that.
The other point is how many in mainstream media initially reported this attack. CNN began reporting that Trump fell at a rally; Newsweek talked about Trump being injured and his supporters outraged; the BBC - hours after the event - talked about an “apparent” shooting; and our own One News focused on Trump being rushed off the stage after shots fired. While not advocating a hysterical call to describing this as an assassination attempt, it was obvious within moments that multiple shots were fired, that Trump was hurt (as were others), and that this was no accident. Even as I write, some commentators in media are playing fast and loose on whether this is even an assassination attempt, questioning whether it has a political motive. While there are still many facts to collect, it is also immediately clear what has happened. It was an assassination attempt of a former President and a political candidate. It is hard to think that mainstream media would have hesitated to describe things as such had it been any other person than Trump.
The shots fired today will undoubtedly be heard on the days to come, and right up to election day.
Much will be said of the state of American politics in the wake of this attempted assassination attempt, however, the so-called assassin was a 20 year-old male. Surely the questions have to be asked as to what drives someone as young as this to do such a heinous act.
I believe much attention should be focused on the algorithms found an all forms of social media channels. It’s easy to see that a minor obsession with firearms, and another that focuses on the so-called evils of Donald Trump could culminate in an avalanche of horrific material resulting in a failed attempt to “save America“.
The same FBI that has had so many notable recent investigative failures will of course come up with whatever the current regime requires.
As you might expect, conspiracy theories are rife, many along the lines it was planned, a false flag, a set up and so on. I think the observation that immediately dispelled that notion for me was the ex-sniper who noticed that if Trump hadn’t turned his head just a millisecond before the shot was fired, it would have been fatal.