It's already a failure

I'm prepared to say it now, even before the full text is released, but the framework to end the conflict between Iran and the United States is a already a failure.

I’ve not seen the full text of the agreement between the Islamic Regime and the United States, but I’m prepared already to call it a failure.

At best, this is just the start of a temporary ceasefire. This is not a peace agreement or anything remotely close. It is a memorandum of understanding – an agreement to discuss things further.

Other than ships may once again be able to transit the Strait of Hormuz, it is difficult to see much other good coming from this framework, soon to signed in Switzerland.

The failures are numerous, and it is hard to know where to start. The Islamic regime remains in power and undoubtedly will use the coming weeks, months, and years to kill and detain any Iranians who oppose them. Just as thousands of Iranian citizens died at their hands at the beginning of the year, sadly, more blood will now follow as they seek to re-entrench themselves.

I am sure the Iranian diaspora will be distraught as well. The hope for real, meaningful change in Iran has dimmed. The desire for change is not completely gone of course, and nor should it, but the hope that this conflict would have facilitated a move towards freedom has faded for now.

There is apparently no clear way forward concerning Iran’s nuclear material and capacity. This is a key aspect of the discussions going forward, but the cynic in me believes the same hurdles that have hampered negotiations to date, will remain. Put another way, if no agreement on the nuclear issue has been agreed by now, why on earth do we think a few more weeks or months is going to make any difference?

The Islamic regime has also learned it holds considerable influence through its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. This option was always a possibility, but now it has been proven. They’ve also shown military resilience, including around its ability to deploy missiles and drones. The American’s claims that they’ve totally degraded Iran’s military is demonstrably false. The Islamic regime has clearly been hit very hard, but they are still able to launch attacks and they will recover their stocks of arms and hardware. This resupply is only a matter of time and money, both of which I suspect this framework will inadvertently enable in the same way Obama’s equally failed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) did.

The Islamic regime will also increase its use of proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah. These terrorist groups have always given Tehran an ability to deny responsibility for attacks on the likes of Israel or Iraq, and I expect these proxies to be used more as the regime continues to exert its influence.

Speaking of Israel, they are another loser through this agreement. The Islamic regime remains, and its proxies still hold ground in Lebanon. If the agreement binds Israel as I expect it will, then its need for self-defence will become akin to a man with one hand tied behind his back. Expect to see Hezbollah continue to launch rockets and attacks, but the Trump administration exerting pressure on Israel to hold back from securing its citizens, particularly at the northern border. As noted before, Tehran will continue its eschatological inspired attacks on Israel via its proxies, with the latter always giving the Islamic regime a degree of distance from accountability.

The place of eschatology is a further reason why this agreement will be a failure. The Islamic regime is a death cult. Its religious ideology is one of submission and death. We need only look at the history of the regime to see this, be it the way it treats women to how it murders its own citizens, while also projecting terror across the globe. Its obsession with the Jews (and Christians) will not stop because it is core to the regime’s political, religious, and eschatological identity. No agreement will change this.

Which brings me to my final point. The Islamic regime is not one to concede or make a deal. The Western mindset says, we give a little, the other side concedes a little, we shake hands and agree to move on. However, this is not the mindset of the religious zealots running Iran. For them, concessions by those they oppose are a sign of that opponent’s weakness. For the fanatic, to be offered a concession is a confirmation that they are right. The Islamic regime will use this agreement as just another bluff, another delay, another stalling tactic.

When this regime calls for the death of Israel and the death of America; when they kill thousands of their own people and export terror – the beliefs underpinning all of this are not suddenly abandoned because of some flimsy ‘peace’ framework.

Trump and others have both misunderstood and underestimated the Islamic regime. If we think some Western inspired bit of paper or any memorandum is going to change the course of this fanatic Islamic regime, we are deluding ourselves.

The framework once fully released will not be a victory. It will be a failure for whether it is six days, six months, or six years, the same death obsessed, religious fanaticism of the Islamic regime will reappear. Sadly, for freedom loving Iranians held hostage in Iran, this failure is being experienced right now but it will be felt again across the Middle East and the world no matter what the peace deal supposedly seeks to deliver.