Is a second term likely?
I address the one question constantly put to me over the summer break - can the current government get a second term of office?
As 2025 begins, I thought I would start the Substack year with some reflections on the year ahead in light of a question that kept being put to me over the summer – will this be a one term government?
The short answer to this is ‘possibly’. I stress the word ‘possibly’ as opposed to ‘probably’. If I were a betting man, I would still put money on this centre-right bloc holding the treasury benches come 2026, but it is in no way a sure bet. It pains me to say this, for contemplating a Labour-Greens-Maori Party combo returning to power is horrifying to say the least after the economic, moral, and social harm they have caused in years past.
However, the current coalition is clearly not resonating sufficiently with the public. One only needs to look at current polling to see this, be it Party or leadership preference. The latest Curia poll showing the National Party at 29% is terrible and yet it does reflect the discontent on the ground. There is no need for panic, but there is much room for improvement. What is needed is real action and substantial policy change, not repetitious phrases and tiresome Tiktok videos.
The recent ministerial portfolio shuffle illustrates this. New titled roles like ‘Minister for Economic Growth’ make for great branding but don’t actually cause economic growth. The same levers that could make ‘the boat go faster’ today, were there yesterday and the years before. They just need to be pulled. Among them, the government has to rein in it’s spending. It remains of deep concern that this current administration is spending more – yes, more! – than the previous Labour government and digging us into deeper debt.
The year ahead is going to be tough and that is even before we contemplate the possibility of American tariffs. Inflation may have come down and now stubbornly plateaued, but people are not feeling this in their back pockets. Reminding people of the early-2024 tax cuts has its place, but seeing it was so small it is not something people remember nor overly value. This year’s Budget must see major change and bold decisions, not tinkering around the edges or dubiously motivated suggestions of taxing charities more.
Staying on the reshuffle, the leak of it does point to some internal discontent. And there is discontent. MPs need to be pondering what is good for the country, not what is good for them if things change. Worryingly, we observe an increasing number of substantial portfolios going to fewer and fewer people. I know there are many MPs with good skills, depth, and real experience on the government side of the House; that they are not being given an opportunity is unfortunate and arguably contributing to the lethargy we are seeing.
The removal of the health portfolio from Shane Reti was a given, as too it going to Simeon Brown as almost the only Minister clearly delivering and being unapologetic for his views. This is no comment on Dr Reti’s abilities, but it was clear things were not working in this specific space or being managed politically.
While congratulations are due to James Meager MP for entering the Executive, the role of ‘Minister of the South Island’ is again just marketing and branding (in the same way the ‘Minister for Auckland’ is). Ministers without an actual ministry and budget are effectively powerless and no more effective advocates than the MPs in the area. Put bluntly, if you need a Minister then what are the MPs doing – and why not have a Minister for Hamilton, Kerikeri, or the Chatham Islands for that matter?
The government also needs to observe the changes developing around the world and the clear shift to the right. A big part of this change is the population rejecting the cultural politics of the left, but also appreciating leaders with a clear, definitive vision. The government’s prevaricating on everything from gender ideology to the place of the Treaty is problematic and confusing to the voter. People want clarity and are responding to leaders and Party’s that demonstrate a strong commitment to free speech, common sense, the rule of law, equality, sex based rights (as opposed to made up rights), and more.
That Labour is lost and listless, the Maori Party being Marxist revolutionaries and out-radicalising the Greens, is also helping the current government. Their vote may have grown in the recent polls, but voters overall are not seeing them as the alternative and for now, this a good thing. If this changes - particularly if Labour finds its stride earlier than anticipated - then there is more trouble ahead for National.
Among the many headwinds facing the government this year and on it’s way back to the Treasury benches in 2026 is the new global reality of President Trump back in the White House.
I wrote months ago, and before legacy media commentators caught up, that the Trump administration will demand much more of New Zealand, particularly in our defence and intelligence space. Not only will the United States expect a more robust approach to Communist China but also a greater financial contribution to security in the Indo-Pacific. This is of course a big issue for New Zealand as we have no money and a propensity to cosy up to the CCP.
The government has, worryingly, cut defence spending and it is hard to see where it will find the amounts required. If it doesn’t, then I expect to see US tariffs deployed. In many ways, New Zealand is in a lose-lose position. We either must magic up hundreds of millions more for defence spending or pay tariffs on our export goods.
Speaking of defence. When is anyone going to be held to account for the sinking of the HMNZS Manawanui? A sixth of our naval fleet lies at the bottom of the ocean for no good reason, and yet near silence and no accountability. We now have the ridiculous suggestion from government that the vessel’s sinking has not impacted capability. This is patently false considering the specific capabilities the Manawanui had, but even if true, one would then have to ask why on earth the vessel was bought in the first place! Incongruent statements such as this are being noted by our allies.
2025 is going to be a critical year for government, and in turn, New Zealand as a whole. I am very conscious many Ministers are working hard on changes. What will be key is that New Zealanders see the fruits of this work – real change to the education curriculum; better transport options; reduced emergency department waiting times; climate policy that doesn’t simply destroy our economy for the sake of global praise; a rejection of wokeness; standing clearly with our allies; and much more.
The way to re-election in 2026 is an unambiguous commitment to good centre-right policies based on time-tested values, and delivering real discernible change. As we are seeing overseas, voters will respond positively if the government in fact embraces such a commitment.
In my opinion there will be no second term with Mr Luxon at the head. I cannot imagine him ever having an epiphany moment of actually hearing the coalition majority, including those who voted for him about what really matters. For sure the economy matters but it is economic waste by the Government public service that matters more. The Treaty principles matter. Gender matters. Immigration matters. National identity matters. Racism against non Māori matters.
We need a leader who gets this.
I see little hope for our country until the back of the Mediocracy (ie Public “Service”) is well and truly broken.
Just as in the 80’s it became clear that prosperity and progress were incompatible with militant unions with a stranglehold on the economy, it is now abundantly clear that only a government prepared to break the stranglehold of the Bureaucratic Beast can change our downward race relations and economic trajectories. Should that ever come to pass I will have little sympathy for the severe impact on all those currently sucking the Beast’s teats - in their Holier-than-Thou way they have pushed their luck too far for too long helping themselves to my hard earned money and imposing their reactionary views on me because they could.