Now for the excuses

There will be many excuses from Zohran Mamdani once his policies fail, yet until we appreciate the reasons why he won, these excuses will succeed.

As anticipated, Zohran Mamdani has won the New York mayoralty. He will be the 111th mayor, and while I am not remotely interested in numerology, this figure could well be seen - tongue in cheek - as an early sign of the emergency ahead.

His win raises a number of issues that need to be addressed by the wider public and politicians. As someone who would not have voted for Mamdani, I will say simply that lamenting a win by a highly contradictory figure who delights in democratic socialism is not the correct response. His win says more about the voters and their motivations and needs than it does about him as a person.

I would say first off though, be prepared to hear a lot of excuses from Mamdani and his supporters as his ideas fail, one after the other. And they will fail. You cannot defund the police and expect security, nor embrace socialism/communism and expect an economy to succeed.

Blame for failure will be placed on previous administrations and at the feet of President Trump. The ‘elites’, ‘capitalists’, and ‘rich’ will be scapegoated. There will be healthy dose of name calling by the Mamdani team - those criticising his failing agenda will be swiftly labeled racist, bigot, Islamophobic, conservative and so on. The value of opponents’ arguments will be dismissed in favour of cheap shots at who they are - the classic victim-oppressor narrative, with Zohran playing the ever-willing part of victim.

All these excuses will resonate within Mamdani’s support base, and will both insulate and exonerate him from any responsibility. This is critical to appreciate, particularly those on the centre-right of politics, for this will not be a matter of letting him fail and for the voters to then suddenly see the light.

What will also contribute to Mamdani maintain traction are the wider reasons why people voted for him, particularly among the young and disenfranchised. This includes disillusionment with their work prospects, housing, and the wider undermining of Western values.

No matter how bad particular issues such as the economy get, those voting for him will remain motivated by these deeper issues. These include the relentless attack on our Western traditions; an ongoing narrative about how bad and failed the likes of the United States is. Zohran represents a non-Western alternative. For young ones at university, being told their society is corrupt, built only on slavery and oppression, and with little good - it makes sense to vote for a Zohran-like figure. He represents an alternative that is supposedly better, and yet those educating the young fail to explain to them that this alternative has failed and is incompatible with the liberal secular society we have.

Understandably as well, there is a large degree of disillusionment in younger voters. Encouraged almost to a person to attend university, they have a studied and built up debt, for either degrees of little value or degrees in areas where supply now well outstrips demand. In many ways, they have been given a false promise and face uncertainty, limited hope, and already fear there is no upward mobility.

Put simply, they see an older generation with good jobs and houses, and see that this is out of reach for them. Consequently, there is an understandable desire to change the playing field, and higher taxes and socialism offer just that.

In many ways, the work by Assistant Professor Musa al-Gharbi, someone I interviewed a few months back, explains not only these voters but also Zohran Mamdani. In his book, We Have Never Been Woke, al-Gharbi talks of symbolic capitalists - those who no longer trade in finance or run physical businesses, but people who work with symbols, words, causes, and ideas. Think social media influencers, activists, reporters, professional protestors, or some running for mayor based on image without any actual experience or background! Sounding familiar?

In a crowded field of activists, the need to differentiate one’s self requires that expressions become louder and more extreme. Mamdani’s ‘defund the police’ or ‘free buses’ would fit this readily.

And yet, as al-Gharib also points out and history shows, these progressives not only make things worse but have such a moral confidence in themselves, that those they seek to help are actually hurt. As Musa and I discussed in our interview, such people will protest in support of migrants yet return to their homes, serviced by cheap immigrant labour. It also explains the violence that follows most progressive causes.

Similarly, Mamdani has made all sorts of slick promises. Great social media, slogans, and a cool coterie of young people complete with ‘hot girls for Zohran’. He’s generated a movement or vibe, based on little other than personality and promises. And yet, it’s all cheap symbolic capital and full of contradictions. I predict his policies will end up harming those he claims to help and the contradictions will drive tensions in the community. He cannot simultaneously support trans rights and Islam, or vocally support Hamas while telling Jewish New Yorkers it will be all ok.

Ultimately, Mamdani is a good actor. He has strongly traded his social capital amongst an understandably disillusioned constituency, particularly the young. But he’s now on the stage with the starring role. I don’t expect a great performance and there will be lots of excuses for inaction or failings. Yet, if his opponents do not develop policies and ideas to address the various underlying issues, particularly those faced by the young, then Zohran will get an encore performance in 2029.