He's back!

Early reflections on the results of the United States election, and how I think we can say that the results show a clear divide between the 'elites' and people at large.

A remarkable and definitive victory for Donald Trump and the Republicans.  There is no doubt about this result – it was a thumping of the Democrats.  Among many reflections, I think the most striking and relevant is that there is a huge gap between the Democrats and their ‘elite’ supporters including many in mainstream media, and the American people.  I will expand on this later, but in short, the issues that Harris and friends thought were relevant are not except on college campuses, newsrooms, and among other left wing radicals. It will also be these same groups unable to comprehend the result and will seek to blame their failure on anyone but themselves.

The win by Trump does not surprise me; I’m on record over recent months stating he would win.  I did however, think it would be closer and on this I was wrong.  He’s romped home winning (as I write) all the swing states and the popular vote.  The latter will be particularly galling for the left.  Last time he won against Hiliary Clinton, he won the Electoral College but not the popular vote.  Now he can clearly state the majority of Americans are behind him – and they are.

The Senate is now firmly in Republican hands and it looks like the Republicans will keep control of the House of Representatives.  It is important to pause and reflect on both of these, alongside Trump’s win.  The American voter has acted comprehensively in rejecting the Democrats’ and their agenda.  This election result is much more than simply Harris v. Trump.

Strikingly, and granted it’s only been a few hours, but the Democrats calls for ‘ending the Senate filibuster’ have suddenly gone silent.  The same is true of their calls for Sotomayor to leave the Supreme Court.  The cards have not fallen anywhere near the way Democrats expected and so their views will change on these and other matters.

The reason for this sweep is simple – Trump and the Republican’s message was appealing to the masses.  It almost feels silly for me to have to write this, but as I read some early media reporting, it seems this simple fact is already lost on some commentators!

In almost every State and county, Trump did better than in previous elections.   He picked up votes from traditionally Democrat leaning demographics – think Black Americans, Latinos, and those union-aligned.  The wave of women meant to vote for Harris never materialised.  This too does not surprise me insofar as people will often get het up around moral issues (think abortion, trans and identity issues) but more often than not – both here and in the USA – people vote on the economy, law and order, healthcare, and education.  As Bill Clinton’s advisor, James Carville, once said “it’s the economy stupid.”  Certainly too for Americans, the unchecked immigration issue was of huge concern.

I do think part of the Trump win is people not liking Harris, or perhaps not really knowing who she was.  I should be clear, I see this as a ‘Trump win’ and not a ‘Harris loss’.  But Harris’ fake phone call on election day – where she pretended to call someone – is symbolic.  There was nothing to her or what she was doing.  I don’t say this to be cruel for in some ways she was in an invidious position.  As Vice President she was relatively irrelevant.  I would argue the same of Deputy Prime Ministers here.  They have a nice title but what exactly do they do in that role? (The answer is little).  We know she had little engagement in White House decisions and that President Biden kept her at a distance.  This however, could not be admitted in public – she had to demonstrate relevance and leadership, and so she explicitly tied herself to Biden’s agenda.  Yet, simultaneously she tried to show she was different to him.  Ultimately, it meant she appeared inauthentic to the American voter. 

Overall, the result illustrates a divided America but not in the way it’s often pitched.  This is not so much a divide of ‘average’ citizens against one another, but a growing divide between elites who believe they know best versus citizens.  The term ‘elites’ is just a quick easy way to include the likes of the leaders of the Democrats, various celebrities, many newsrooms and reporters, university faculties, and so on.  Their views are increasingly at odds with the American people.  The result last night illustrates this.  Put crudely, the elite love the woke issues.  Last night, more American people woke up and voted to reject these issues and influences.

Here in New Zealand, I see various commentators, former politicians and diplomats saying Trump will be no good for New Zealand.  I would point out the counter-factual insofar as no US President of late has been good for New Zealand, particularly around trade.  Much is often made of Trump and free trade, but Harris would have been no different – just as Biden has done nothing for New Zealand, nor would have Clinton had she won back in 2016.  The only positive in our trading relationship for many years was the adoption of the Knowledgeable Innovators and Worthy Investors Act (or KIWI Act) back in 2018 – under Donald Trump. 

I will draw people’s attention though to an earlier Substack I wrote and one area I do expect Trump to put explicit pressure on New Zealand – and this is defence spending. You can read the op-ed below:

Defending Trump

A final few quick points.  I do not share the concerns that a Trump administration will undermine the Constitution.  I think said Constitution is robust and the very separation of powers that often paralyses the country, will also play its part if Trump does seek to extend his influence in appropriately. 

The excuses already starting that Harris lost due to sexism and racism will only reinforce voters’ choice.  As I referenced earlier, the elite obsession with race, gender, identity and so forth are at odds with the popular vote.

As you can imagine, there is much more that can be written and said.  In fact, that is one certainty we can have as Trump becomes the President-elect and that is there will be no shortage of commentary over the coming days and years!