Be prepared
The fraying of the international rules-based order and various conflicts - either happening now or possible in the future - should see New Zealand preparing now. There are no excuses for inaction.
During a recent visit by the US President to Beijing, President Xi of China made it clear that Taiwan must become part of China. Xi has frequently talked of Taiwan as part of China, and that it will eventually be reunited including by military force if necessary.
This is not a new position by the leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and as such, people often just accept the position without much question.
We should however, step back from the familiarity and see this position for what it is – a well-armed, militaristic autocracy wanting to take over a vibrant functioning democracy.
Our reaction should not be indifference, but outrage.
As I have frequently said, if we believe in democracy, then we should believe in it’s value and importance everywhere. Taiwan was once a dictatorship, but now free of those shackles. I had the good fortune to visit a few years ago, including meeting President Tsai, and the country is amazing. The idea that a totalitarian communist regime could control the country should concern everyone. Not just that there is no equivalence between communist regimes and democracies, but also from an economic and military perspective. For China to control Taiwan would instantly change the geo-political and strategic balance in the Pacific. This cannot be overstated.
But the key objection remains a moral one – if we value our democracy in New Zealand, we should value democracies around the world. As I keep stressing, not all political systems – or cultures, religions, philosophies for that matter – are made equal.
You would think New Zealand the rest of the Western world would have learned from the tragedy of Hong Kong. Like Taiwan is today, Hong Kong was once vibrant and democratic, with a free press and the other freedoms we perhaps take for granted here at home. However, from 2019 onwards, this democracy has been crushed. There is no free press, no free elections, and state control is everywhere.
While I am very familiar that China is New Zealand’s largest trading partner, this should not blind or silence us around these matters. Furthermore, when dictators like Xi talk about these things, we should believe them.
The New Zealand government and corporate boards should be preparing now in anticipation of Chinese aggression across the Taiwan Strait. We should rightly be calling for restraint and an end to the threats, but preparing contingencies is also prudent.
If China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) attacks Taiwan, the consequences will be massive. I would posit that it will make the economic fallout of Covid and current fuel issues look minor in comparison. We should be considering alternative trade routes, variations of supply, and what we currently rely on from overseas that we could better develop here at home. We need strategic resilience and this begins with planning early. It also means real investment into local industry and also into our military. I am aware of the various speeches and intentions, including the Prime Minister’s recent speech about New Zealand’s place in a more volatile world. It was an excellent speech, but more than words are needed. To date, the coalition government’s words and claims have not always reflected the reality of the situation (granted, that’s true of any government!). There will need to be a prioritising of spending into strategic infrastructure as well as defence. This will not be easy of course, for there is no shortage of demands for funding and certainly not enough money to cover every need.
I would maintain that New Zealand should have been better prepared for the consequences of the current conflict in the Middle East. What is happening there was well-signalled and should not have surprised anyone. While credit can be given to how both government and corporate entities have reacted, the lesson should be to have being already prepared – not simply reacting after the fact. For example, we should have already been building onshore capacity to increase fuel stocks.
We live in a more unstable world with the rules-based order – to which we have become comfortable with - fraying notably. These changes are happening before our eyes and from friend and foe, and alongside the threats by the likes of the CCP, we should be ready. There is no excuse to be unprepared.
In Media
What was once a question never asked, has now become a problem for some - that is, ‘what is a woman?’ Many will know the name Sall Grover, the Australian woman fighting to keep biological reality front and centre and yet who has lost her latest legal case against a biological man, intent on entering women-only spaces. Sall’s story is incredible, so I highly recommend my latest podcast interview with her:
I also had the pleasure of sitting down and being interviewed with Substack contributor and podcaster, Brendan Malone. It is a wide ranging discussion on politics past and present, from the Covid days and the protest, to reflections on what’s happening currently in parliament. As Brendan notes, rightly, it is a rather candid conversation.
Have to agree with your assessment but will we do what is needed to prepare for more self reliance. Unfortunately I don’t think we will
On point indeed!